Who will be the next prime minister of Thailand?

(Left to right: Abhisit Vejajiva, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh , Samak Sundaravej)

For those who have only experienced elections in a western country, it's important to appreciate that Thai elections and political parties are not the same.

On the surface, Thai elections may seem similar to their British counterparts. Indeed the system was modelled on the UK version, the only differences are that Thailand's upper house is a senate and the kingdom uses a mix of 'first past the post' voting (about 80%) and proportional representation(the other 20%)

Since the absolute monarchy was overthrown by Pridi and his group in 1932, Thai government has been run by either a junta or a coalition government. Coalition governments may seem like a good idea but they are not. In Thailand at least, coalition governments equate to corporate businessmen looking to engage in power plays, favours and corruption. Party policies are thin on the ground and keep promises even rarer. Party campaigns are done by patronage and advertising, promotion by policy or party vision simply does not happen.

At this point I should mention the only exception to this is Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai party. TRT actually made some polices and went through with them. They were also the only party (to my knowledge) that gained a full majority in the house (248 seats from 500, but they bought out another party just to be absolutely sure). Too bad they used that for bad rather than good.


So when TRT were dissolved by the Constitutional Court and their executives banned from politics, it didn't take long for many of the veteran rats to crawl back on the political ship as they sensed the power vacuum. New parties sprang up everywhere, the most notable being Pracharaj Party lead by former Thaksin ally Sanoh Thienteng (who jumps ship whenever his party is not in power) and former PM Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who apparently thinks that running Thailand into the ground during the Asian Financial Crises makes him an attractive proposition for re-election.*

But the biggest concern for this writer is the re-emergence of Thaksin's former TRT allies. The execs who were banned from politics have thrown their academic and considerable financial support behind the non executive members who in turn - after several games of political musical chairs - have merged into the People Power Party. (Don't be fooled, Thai parties use the cool and modern sounding names to hide their utter incompetence and lack of vision).

The PPP purposely chose the man as closely linked with Thaksin as possible his, name is Samak Sundaravej This man is basically Thaksin without the economic prowess or desire for health care. Samak is a former Bangkok governor and like Chavalit, he sees his record of being utterly ineffective as a good resume. His very first speech as party leader was a perfect summary of his - and his party's - mentality:

[To corruption investigators] "You smack me and I'll smack you back" (Bangkok Post)

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Thai politics.



The PPP have stormed the north east of Thailand, shamelessly promoting themselves on their Thaksin connections. The PPP rally this week was attended by 3,00 or 25,000 depending on which newspaper you read, and saw supporters holding signs saying "Vote Samak, get Thaksin". Meanwhile the PPP speakers spent their time outlining not policies, not visions for Thailand, not assurances of clean behaviour but a litany of how great Thaksin was and how he was being bullied by the junta. That was it folks, that was all PPP had to offer.

Already internal splits have begun. Today, PP member Chalerm Yoobamrung threatened to take his ball and go home if PPP did not allow his sons to run for election :

"If People Power does not select me and my two sons - Wan and Duang - as Bangkok candidates, I'll be ready to leave the party,The bottom line is that it must accept me and my sons as a package," Chalerm said.

Chalerm said if he left People Power he might join Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who has suggested he may establish a party. He will talk with Chavalit today.

Source: The Nation

And you thought politicians behaved like adults who cared about their voters.

There is a thorn in the PPP side however. Fromer Junta leader, now self nominated deputy PM, Sonthi Boonyarakin is on a mission to stop PPP. Under the guise of "stopping vote buying" the current government and election agencies are giving PPP a hard time. Their new party advert (surprise! It is simply a promise to bring back Thaksin's policies) was rejected by the Election Commission without reason. PPP howled in disdain, forgetting the days when TRT dominated TV advertising and the Democrats received less than ten percent of their air time allowance.


The others side of this equation is Abhisit Vejajaiva of the Democrats. Abhisit has handled himself well throughout the coup and the dissolution trial. As I've said before, he is a genuinely intelligent, progressive politician. However, he has constantly failed to show the leadership or passion that is required. Abhisit failed to offer genuine policies to counter TRT's populism, he failed to project himself as the ideal replacement for Thaksin after the coup and he has failed to win hearts or minds in the North East during this election run up.

Some has voiced concerns that Abhisit may be too soft to resist military interference in his government, a further concern Abhisit has never addressed. Thais see youth as a disadvantage in leadership and Abhisit has not offered any response to criticisms that he is too young to lead the nation.

Yet undoubtedly, Abhsiit is the best choice for Thailand. He is the only genuine new breed of politician available (the guy is not even fat and ugly for gooness sake!) and he has taken genuine steps to reduce corruption inside and outside his party. If he does not take this opportunity to steer the Democrats to a clear majority in the house, he will have only himself to blame and Thailand will suffer from another era of weak, greedy, incompetent coalition governments.

Why Abhisit must stand alone

Abhisit Vejjajiva should be feeling on top of the world these days. The Democrat leader has seen his party survive a transparent and efficiently handled dissolution trial in the Constitutional Court and - in the same fall of the axe - the opposition Thai Rak Thai party was dissolved. It created an ideal political void, seemingly tailor made for the Oxford educated leader.

Just when it seemed things couldn't get any better, the military junta announced the date of the national election could be bought forward, stealing time away from any rival party or disassociated politicians looking to clamour back to power.

So why, then, does the young party leader seem to continue festering a deep streak of insecurity?

Abhisit appeared recently at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Bangkok to state his cause to foreign journalists. I was unable to attend but a colleague informed me that Abhisit presented himself well but seemed more concerned with drawing criticism of Thaksin and the current political situation than he was with propagating his own ideas. "Lack of vision" was the abridged summary of the Democrat's front man.

It seems the foreign journalists aren't the only ones having their doubts. Reports from The Nation state that since the conclusion of the dissolution trial, Abhisit has been in regular contact with political heavyweights like Banharn Silapa-archa and Chavalit Yongchaiyud. One doesn't need embellished imagination to guess at what was being discussed.

Clearly, Abhisit lacks faith his own group's ability to take a clear majority in the elections. In such circumstances, he has decided to follow the laws of realpolitik and co -operate with the old brass to ensure he gets a controlling stake in the house.

But for Abhisit to collaborate with 'old school' leaders like Barnharm and Chavalit carries huge risk.

Everything about Abhisit Vejjajiva represents a "new generation" of Thai politician. Young, fresh faced and western educated, Abhisit has always presented himself as a detachment from the past that is unaffiliated with military politics and perceived as cleaner and less contentious than Thaksin. His promises of asset declarations for all MPs and pledges of transparent checks and balances have always been delivered with the gentle but firm tone of voice and the handsome smile that endears him to the Bangkok middle classes.

Abhisit also speaks with boldness of a progressive breed. He openly criticsed Sondhi and Thaksin's dual use of astrologers in the process of politics and has pledged compulsory asset declaration for his own party MPs.

Such actions at well with the core bases, but as Abhisit well knows, it hasn't gained any ground with the traditional non Democrat areas such as the North East. In such areas the ghost of Thaksin the politician looms large, and voters are less concerned with emulating western style politics than with receiving tangible benefits for voting one particular way. So far Abhisit has failed to convince them, and it appears his concern has forced him to look to the experience of old leaders.

But Abhisit must be sure that in associating himself with the likes of Banharn Silapa-archa for the sole purpose of reaching a new audience, he doesn't destroy his own base. Neither Barharn nor Chavilit achieved a lot of good for Thailand during their reign, and time has done little to boost the public's faith in the old brass. If Abhisit is sincere about reducing the "old boys" network of corruption in government, he cannot possibly expect people to accept his collaboration with a man who gained the nickname "Mr ATM" during his tenure as PM.

Likewise, Chavalit Yongchaiyud has done little to restore himself credibility in recent months. As the junta and the people struggled to return to normal after the coup of 2006, Chavilit was more concerned with making sure that everyone heard his cries of discontent at the ousting of Thaksin and publicly demanded "a deep, deep wai" from the CNS. For many voters, the old general represents the antithisis of a modern progressive government.

None of the candidates for a coalition with The Democrats have shown any interest in party policies, all of them have shown a willingness to switch parties and jump ship at any given time.

Abhisit can see the opportunity of his career looming ahead of him and he's straining to ensure it doesn't pass him by. But in doing so, he must ensure that he doesn't wreck everything he stands for by associating with the type of politician who is everything Abhisit professes not to be. The only true victory for The Democrats in the next election would be a clear majority. If Abhisit can't do it achieve that now, he never will.