Everyone is entitled to democracy (but some are more entitled than others)

I've always been aware that political blogging is not without risk. For some reason though, I always thought I ran the greatest risk for my comments on Thailand. After all, Matt once got a warning call, bloggers and forum posters in the past have been arrested, detained, questioned and censored without any public explanation being offered. And just this week, Fah Diew Kan - a political and sociological website - was shut down by MICT without warning (more on this in a moment). So much for Sittichai's promise.

But perhaps I forgot just how pathetic my beloved England has become. Blogger Lionheart has been told he will be arrested for charges of inciting racial hatred through writing when he returns to the UK.

Visit Lionheart's blog and see for yourself if he deserves to go to jail. It's important to understand that you don't have to like him, rate his blog or agree with what he says. You simply have to decide if he deserves to be banged up for writing his blog. And if so, what about this guy or these people? Why not them?

Please support Lionheart and FDK. Visit here to support facthai and oppose all censorship.

I say we stick with these people. If not, it could be us next.


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Sticking with the topic of free speech or lack thereof, it appears another legal coup is in the making. True to my prediction, it appears the Election Commission have become ultra efficient and mature overnight and decided to yellow card or delay approval for 83 politicians who were elected last week. Guess what? sixty five are from PPP! It doesn't stop there either, the Supreme Court are set to hear a case against the PPP bought by Democrat MP Chaiwat Sinsuwong under charges that Samak is a nominee of Thaksin. If found guilty, the entire PPP will be dissolved.

So as an anti-Thaksin, anti-Samak, anti-PPP man I'm happy right? Actually I'm disgusted. The EC is not doing its job, its carrying out a pre-determined, crooked mission on orders from above. The incompetent, boot dragging bunch of pathetic cretins have never been good at their job. If they were, every politician outside the Democrats would have been red carded from day one, so why the blatant bias against the PPP candidates? The same goes for the Supreme Court. We knew from day one Samak was a nominee, hell that was the PPP's one and only policy platform. Why have the powers that be waited until NOW to bring the charges?

As my staunchly Democrat wife said: "If we people are dumb enough to choose PPP, we deserve them".

A lot of people seem to be seeking complex or legal reasons for what is happening. Personally, I just apply Occam's razor and plug for the simple explanation: this is plan B for the elite. They wanted to hold elections in the hope that the Dems would win so they could claim they had returned democracy to the people (although that would still be a lie). But the elite had underestimated the will for Thaksin to return and now they are resorting to plan B: stage a coup through legal channels.

Thai people have chosen PPP. They should have the PPP. They deserve PPP. Until Samak and his sickening cronies are given a chance to show how incompetent and corrupt they are, the people will never learn. By changing the rules every time they lose, the elite (you know who I mean) are dragging Thailand back to the dark ages. I fear Pasuk Pongpaichit's prediction is coming true: violence is looking likely.

Thailand, for whom the bell tolls

Latest exit polls show that this man is likely to be the next prime minister of Thailand:



"You smack me and I'll smack you back"
To corruption investigators

"Did you have sinful sex last night?"
In the holy language of Sanskrit, to a journalist

After the Thammasat Massacre of 1976, Samak happily ordered the banning of some 200 plus books that were a ....yep, you guessed it......."threat to national security".

One of his close aides in the party is Chalerm Yoobamrung.

The thoughts of Anek Laothamatas ring loudly in my ears. I find it hard to keep hope, but it is the rape of democracy that got us here in the first place.Now the people have given the biggest possible middle finger to the military and their aides (hidden or not) , but in doing so, have given the military a perfect incentive for another ku. they have elected the most arrogant, incompetent and "allegedly" corrupt proxy possible. Thaksin without any of the intelligence.

So Thailand faces four years under this man - as well as Thaksin getting away scot free for his crimes and being welcomed back as a hero - or the army and other forces (who cannot be named despite their role in this farce) wait for the PPP to show their corruptness and incompetence and then stage another coup to take us back to stage one.

Is there any way out? Only if a coalition is formed between ALL the opposition parties.

A prediction for the Thai election

I am making a prediction here and now. It may fail. It may fall flat on its face and bloggers aplenty can come back to mock me. But I believe there is a strong chance it can happen.

Let me give some brief preamble. The next general election in Thailand is set for December 23rd. It is of course, the date when we will supposedly see General Sonthi and his junta return power back to the people. Some pundits believe the army will be reluctant to truly do this for two main reasons. Firstly, they want to keep control to ensure they receive "benefits", secondly they fear clansmen of Thaksin Shiniwat could return to power (despite the best efforts to ban them) and render the coup futile.

And I notice that in the run up to the election, Sonthi has been making frequent references to vote buying. Vote buying is a crime all parties are linked with, but especially TRT and Thaksin since they are associated with the poorer demographic of Thailand. ( And also because, well, it's true! TRT engaged in large scale vote buying in various forms).

It seems strange Sonthi should so suddenly and vocally care about a clean election. It seems strange that the one form of fraud he should speak out against is the one most associated with Thaksin and his ilk. It seems strange that his quotes are timed this way, just like his quotes on Singapore spying just before the army requested a few extra billion for a satellite. It seems strange that he so suuddenly wants to set up a vote fraud panel with .....guess who? ....as the head. (Yet again Sonthi is telling the ECC that he will do their job for them, does this mean the ECC panel's salaries will not be charged to the taxpayer?)

My prediction is this: If the PPP (People Power Party, the group closely associated with Thaksin and TRT) win "too many" seats at the election and give themselves a large stake in the inevitable coalition government, Sonthi will move to stop them.

He will do this by either a) Claming some regional seats as invalid due to vote buying b) Declaring the election invalid and ordering a re-election. (Drastic? Yes. More drastic than a coup? No) c) Ordering a Gore Vs Bush style re-count in certain provinces, under allegations of vote buying.

I believe the junta are desperate to ensure that Abhisit and the Democrats take control, as the junta see them as soft and easy to control. I believe the sudden unctuous cries to beware vote fraud are really a pretext for taking control of the electorate. This way, Sonthi can claim he is not shafting any party (as has already been predicted and denied) but is simply playing fair.

Don't get me wrong, everyone knows I hate vote fraud, but I doubt the sincerity our rulers are expressing here.

So there is my prediction, come back to mock me after December 23rd.

Who will be the next prime minister of Thailand?

(Left to right: Abhisit Vejajiva, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh , Samak Sundaravej)

For those who have only experienced elections in a western country, it's important to appreciate that Thai elections and political parties are not the same.

On the surface, Thai elections may seem similar to their British counterparts. Indeed the system was modelled on the UK version, the only differences are that Thailand's upper house is a senate and the kingdom uses a mix of 'first past the post' voting (about 80%) and proportional representation(the other 20%)

Since the absolute monarchy was overthrown by Pridi and his group in 1932, Thai government has been run by either a junta or a coalition government. Coalition governments may seem like a good idea but they are not. In Thailand at least, coalition governments equate to corporate businessmen looking to engage in power plays, favours and corruption. Party policies are thin on the ground and keep promises even rarer. Party campaigns are done by patronage and advertising, promotion by policy or party vision simply does not happen.

At this point I should mention the only exception to this is Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai party. TRT actually made some polices and went through with them. They were also the only party (to my knowledge) that gained a full majority in the house (248 seats from 500, but they bought out another party just to be absolutely sure). Too bad they used that for bad rather than good.


So when TRT were dissolved by the Constitutional Court and their executives banned from politics, it didn't take long for many of the veteran rats to crawl back on the political ship as they sensed the power vacuum. New parties sprang up everywhere, the most notable being Pracharaj Party lead by former Thaksin ally Sanoh Thienteng (who jumps ship whenever his party is not in power) and former PM Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who apparently thinks that running Thailand into the ground during the Asian Financial Crises makes him an attractive proposition for re-election.*

But the biggest concern for this writer is the re-emergence of Thaksin's former TRT allies. The execs who were banned from politics have thrown their academic and considerable financial support behind the non executive members who in turn - after several games of political musical chairs - have merged into the People Power Party. (Don't be fooled, Thai parties use the cool and modern sounding names to hide their utter incompetence and lack of vision).

The PPP purposely chose the man as closely linked with Thaksin as possible his, name is Samak Sundaravej This man is basically Thaksin without the economic prowess or desire for health care. Samak is a former Bangkok governor and like Chavalit, he sees his record of being utterly ineffective as a good resume. His very first speech as party leader was a perfect summary of his - and his party's - mentality:

[To corruption investigators] "You smack me and I'll smack you back" (Bangkok Post)

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Thai politics.



The PPP have stormed the north east of Thailand, shamelessly promoting themselves on their Thaksin connections. The PPP rally this week was attended by 3,00 or 25,000 depending on which newspaper you read, and saw supporters holding signs saying "Vote Samak, get Thaksin". Meanwhile the PPP speakers spent their time outlining not policies, not visions for Thailand, not assurances of clean behaviour but a litany of how great Thaksin was and how he was being bullied by the junta. That was it folks, that was all PPP had to offer.

Already internal splits have begun. Today, PP member Chalerm Yoobamrung threatened to take his ball and go home if PPP did not allow his sons to run for election :

"If People Power does not select me and my two sons - Wan and Duang - as Bangkok candidates, I'll be ready to leave the party,The bottom line is that it must accept me and my sons as a package," Chalerm said.

Chalerm said if he left People Power he might join Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who has suggested he may establish a party. He will talk with Chavalit today.

Source: The Nation

And you thought politicians behaved like adults who cared about their voters.

There is a thorn in the PPP side however. Fromer Junta leader, now self nominated deputy PM, Sonthi Boonyarakin is on a mission to stop PPP. Under the guise of "stopping vote buying" the current government and election agencies are giving PPP a hard time. Their new party advert (surprise! It is simply a promise to bring back Thaksin's policies) was rejected by the Election Commission without reason. PPP howled in disdain, forgetting the days when TRT dominated TV advertising and the Democrats received less than ten percent of their air time allowance.


The others side of this equation is Abhisit Vejajaiva of the Democrats. Abhisit has handled himself well throughout the coup and the dissolution trial. As I've said before, he is a genuinely intelligent, progressive politician. However, he has constantly failed to show the leadership or passion that is required. Abhisit failed to offer genuine policies to counter TRT's populism, he failed to project himself as the ideal replacement for Thaksin after the coup and he has failed to win hearts or minds in the North East during this election run up.

Some has voiced concerns that Abhisit may be too soft to resist military interference in his government, a further concern Abhisit has never addressed. Thais see youth as a disadvantage in leadership and Abhisit has not offered any response to criticisms that he is too young to lead the nation.

Yet undoubtedly, Abhsiit is the best choice for Thailand. He is the only genuine new breed of politician available (the guy is not even fat and ugly for gooness sake!) and he has taken genuine steps to reduce corruption inside and outside his party. If he does not take this opportunity to steer the Democrats to a clear majority in the house, he will have only himself to blame and Thailand will suffer from another era of weak, greedy, incompetent coalition governments.